Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
Hapoel Beer Sheva53%
Hapoel Hadera23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 68% more chances
Season form · 113 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 113 matches
Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.95 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66
Hapoel Hadera attack 1.05 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Hapoel Beer Sheva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Hapoel Beer Sheva
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Hapoel Petah Tikva
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Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva host Hapoel Hadera on Saturday, 21 September 2024 at 17:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Hadera 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on September 21, 2024.
Goals: D. Diby (45+2'), E. Peretz (51'), A. Garita (71').
Hapoel Beer Sheva controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 2.
The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.