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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
I. Zlatanovic 44', 33'
T. Muzie 90'
O. Atzili 54'
4/25/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Championship Group - 28Toto Turner Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva47%
×Draw24%
Beitar Jerusalem28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.67
Beitar Jerusalem
1.24

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 35% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 106 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.95
Beitar Jerusalem
1.54

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.93
Beitar Jerusalem
1.38

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
72%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Beitar Jerusalem
76%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
53%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
25%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
50%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
23%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
71%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
35%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
62%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 113 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.38 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.95 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.54 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
47%
level
24%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
28%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66
I. ZlatanovicHapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva · F
8.3

Match Events

6'
O. Blorian
30'
D. T. Diop
33'
I. Zlatanovic↳ M. Abu Rumi
44'
I. Zlatanovic↳ E. Peretz
48'
J. Kalu
54'
O. Atzili↳ J. Kalu
63'
Z. Ahmed← A. C. Ganah
65'
T. Muzie← E. Gonzalez
68'
T. Muzie
71'
B. Carabali
76'
S. Elias← E. Peretz
79'
J. East← I. Zlatanovic
79'
R. Levy← M. Abu Rumi
82'
Boris Enow
83'
D. Micha← O. Atzili
88'
D. Hugi← Z. Ben Shimol
90+4'
Boris Enow
90+4'
Boris Enow
90+5'
H. Lopes
90'
T. Muzie

Possession

49%Hapoel

Shots

14Hapoel

Pass accuracy

50%Hapoel

Statistics

HapoelBeitar
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots8
8Corners3
16Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots8
8On Target3
5Off Target4
1Blocked1
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
309Total Passes328
223Accurate Passes237
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls16
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–2 Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Beer Sheva and Beitar Jerusalem drew 2-2 in Ligat Ha'al on April 25, 2026.

Goals: I. Zlatanovic (33', 44'), O. Atzili (54'), T. Muzie (90').

Beitar Jerusalem controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Toto Turner Stadium.