Beitar Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beitar Jerusalem

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Beer Sheva

5/29/2025

State Cup · FinalBloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem37%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beitar JerusalemExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.73

Beitar Jerusalem

1.64

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.43

creates per match

2.31

1.14

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem

2.43

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2.31

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem

1.14

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw

60%

Beitar Jerusalem or Hapoel Beer Sheva

77%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

63%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

18%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

81%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

49%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

82%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

52%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

48%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.43 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.64

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 2.31 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

37%

level

23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

40%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff