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Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Y. Shua 77'
K. Kangwa 81'
5/12/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Championship Group - 33Teddy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem33%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Beer Sheva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Jerusalem
1.21
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.38

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 111 away

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.42
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.45

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.31
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.00

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw
59%
Beitar Jerusalem or Hapoel Beer Sheva
74%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
67%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
14%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
70%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
34%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
45%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.42 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.45 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more
33%
level
26%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
41%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Y. ShuaBeitar JerusalemBeitar Jerusalem · F
8.0

Match Events

4'
M. Baltaxa← H. Lopes
23'
R. Elimelech← N. Antwi
28'
M. Baltaxa
60'
T. Muzie← L. Yarin
63'
J. East← M. Abu Rumi
77'
Y. Shua↳ T. Muzie
78'
S. Elias← E. Peretz
79'
Miguel Vitor← D. T. Diop
79'
R. Levy← A. C. Ganah
81'
K. Kangwa
86'
Y. Cohen
90+4'
E. Gonzalez← Y. Shua

Possession

49%Beitar

Shots

6Beitar

Pass accuracy

49%Beitar

Statistics

BeitarHapoel
Overview
49%Possession51%
6Total Shots14
1Corners3
13Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target4
4Off Target8
1Blocked2
2Inside Box12
4Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
288Total Passes298
193Accurate Passes213
67%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls19
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Beer Sheva drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on May 12, 2026.

Goals: Y. Shua (77'), K. Kangwa (81').

Hapoel Beer Sheva controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.