Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
3/4/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 24Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva46%
×Draw24%
Beitar Jerusalem29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.63
Beitar Jerusalem
1.24

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.92
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
71%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Beitar Jerusalem
76%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
54%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
24%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
48%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
22%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
71%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
35%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
61%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
46%
level
24%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
29%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium in Be'er Sheva.