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Hansa Rostock vs Hertha Berlin — DFB Pokal 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
V. Ibišević 90'
M. Weiser 85'
8/14/2017DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundOstseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hansa Rostock9%
×Draw15%
Hertha Berlin76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
0.78
Hertha Berlin
2.59

Hertha Berlin creates 232% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
0.57
Hertha Berlin
2.90

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
2.29
Hertha Berlin
1.00

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
24%
Hansa Rostock or Hertha Berlin
85%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
91%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
3%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
54%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
18%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
4%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
92%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
73%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
11%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 0.57 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hertha Berlin attack 2.90 + Hansa Rostock defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
9%
level
15%
Hertha Berlin scores more
76%

Hertha Berlin at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. WeiserHertha BerlinHertha Berlin · D
8.4

Match Events

21'
Per Ciljan Skjelbred
70'
S. Benyamina← M. Owusu
72'
Oliver Hüsing
79'
G. Haraguchi← S. Kalou
85'
S. Alibaz← M. Ziemer
85'
M. Weiser↳ M. Leckie
86'
Amaury Bischoff
86'
M. Bouziane← B. Henning
89'
Alexander Esswein
90+2'
O. Duda← A. Esswein
90'
V. Ibišević↳ M. Leckie

Possession

32%Hansa

Shots

3Hansa

Pass accuracy

47%Hansa

Statistics

HansaHertha
Overview
32%Possession68%
3Total Shots18
1Corners4
10Fouls16
Shots
3Total Shots18
0On Target4
1Off Target9
2Blocked5
0Inside Box12
3Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
363Total Passes741
293Accurate Passes669
81%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin beat Hansa Rostock 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 14, 2017.

Goals: M. Weiser (85'), V. Ibišević (90').

Hertha Berlin controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 3.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.