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Hansa Rostock vs Hertha Berlin — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
11/5/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 12Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock34%
×Draw24%
Hertha Berlin42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.42
Hertha Berlin
1.60

Hertha Berlin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
Hertha Berlin
1.69

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
Hertha Berlin
1.76

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Hertha Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
58%
Hansa Rostock or Hertha Berlin
76%
Draw or Hertha Berlin
66%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
16%
Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
76%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
41%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
17%
Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
47%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
45%
Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hertha Berlin attack 1.69 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
34%
level
24%
Hertha Berlin scores more
42%

Hertha Berlin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 0–0 Hertha Berlin

Hansa Rostock and Hertha Berlin drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.