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Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC — DFB Pokal 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
8/18/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundOstseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hansa Rostock10%
×Draw15%
Hertha BSC76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
0.91
Hertha BSC
2.77

Hertha BSC creates 204% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
0.60
Hertha BSC
3.33

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
2.20
Hertha BSC
1.22

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
Hertha BSC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
24%
Hansa Rostock or Hertha BSC
85%
Draw or Hertha BSC
90%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
3%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
60%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
23%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
6%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
94%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
76%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
12%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 0.60 + Hertha BSC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Hertha BSC attack 3.33 + Hansa Rostock defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
10%
level
15%
Hertha BSC scores more
76%

Hertha BSC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Hansa Rostock 1–5 Hertha BSC

Hertha BSC beat Hansa Rostock 5-1 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.