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Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — League #80 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
M. Costly 68', 21'
M. Besuschkow 35'
1/31/2026League #80League #80 · Round 22Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hansa Rostock46%
×Draw25%
FC Ingolstadt 0429%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.56
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.18

Hansa Rostock creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.68
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.28

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.07
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.44

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
71%
Hansa Rostock or FC Ingolstadt 04
75%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
54%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
23%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
79%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
46%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
21%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
69%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
33%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
62%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.68 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
46%
level
25%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
29%

Hansa Rostock at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
K. EiseleFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · G
9.0

Match Events

21'
M. Costly↳ J. Kugel
35'
M. Besuschkow
46'
C. Kinsombi← J. Dirkner
46'
M. Krauss← K. Fatkic
46'
E. Kehrer← M. Besuschkow
47'
Andreas Voglsammer
62'
Dennis Kaygın
64'
C. Harenbrock← B. Dietze
64'
E. Holten← A. Voglsammer
68'
L. Frode← D. Kaygin
68'
M. Costly↳ E. Kehrer
70'
Linus Rosenlöcher
79'
Marcel Costly
80'
N. Neidhart← J. Mejdr
81'
Florian-Horst Carstens
81'
M. Toye← J. Kugel
86'
Y. Sturm← M. Costly
86'
M. Plath← F. Carlsen

Possession

73%Hansa

Shots

18Hansa

Pass accuracy

59%Hansa

Statistics

HansaFC
Overview
73%Possession27%
18Total Shots11
2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.61
11Corners3
9Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target2
7Blocked6
13Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
73%Possession27%
561Total Passes241
451Accurate Passes135
80%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

League #80: Hansa Rostock 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 in League #80 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Costly (21', 68'), M. Besuschkow (35').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (73%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.