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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock — League #80 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
S. Grønning 70'
P. Testroet 33'
F. Ruschke 59'
9/29/2024League #80League #80 · Round 8Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0446%
×Draw25%
Hansa Rostock29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.61
Hansa Rostock
1.22

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
2.11
Hansa Rostock
1.11

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.32
Hansa Rostock
1.11

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
71%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Hansa Rostock
75%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
54%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
24%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
80%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
48%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
22%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
34%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
62%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.61

Hansa Rostock attack 1.11 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
46%
level
25%
Hansa Rostock scores more
29%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. MaloneFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · D
7.3

Match Events

19'
Marcel Costly
33'
P. Testroet
46'
L. Guwara← N. Dühring
46'
C. Harenbrock← M. Schuster
57'
D. Kopacz← M. Dittgen
59'
F. Ruschke
61'
K. Schumacher← F. Ruschke
61'
N. Fröling← S. Haugen
67'
S. Grønning← P. Testroet
70'
S. Grønning↳ R. Malone
77'
Adrien Lebeau
77'
Jonas Dirkner
77'
C. Kinsombi← N. Neidhart
78'
F. Keidel← Y. Deichmann
78'
T. Heike← D. Borkowski
82'
Lukas Fröde
88'
T. Krohn← A. Lebeau

Possession

40%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCHansa
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots10
1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.39
3Corners10
9Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target2
4Blocked4
7Inside Box7
8Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
298Total Passes471
224Accurate Passes391
75%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Hansa Rostock 2-1 in League #80 on September 29, 2024.

Goals: P. Testroet (33'), F. Ruschke (59'), S. Grønning (70').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.