Hansa Rostock 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 04: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

S. Haugen 42'

A. Lebeau 28'

3/8/2025

League #80 · Round 27Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hansa Rostock46%

×Draw25%

FC Ingolstadt 0429%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.18

Hansa Rostock

1.56

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.18

Hansa Rostock creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

1.68

creates per match

1.28

1.07

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.68

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.28

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.07

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

71%

Hansa Rostock or FC Ingolstadt 04

75%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

54%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

23%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

79%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

46%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

21%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

69%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

33%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

62%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.68 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

46%

level

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

29%

Hansa Rostock at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Lebeau↳ R. Naderi

35'

Sigurd Haugen

42'

S. Haugen↳ B. Dietze

46'

P. Testroet← D. Kopacz

54'

55'

60'

61'

69'

Y. Deichmann← G. Christensen

73'

C. Kinsombi← S. Haugen

74'

75'

78'

82'

82'

82'

84'

85'

85'

88'

88'

D. Roßbach← F. Ruschke

90+1'

Ahmet Gürleyen

90+1'

Ahmet Gürleyen

Hansa3-4-3

FC4-4-2

38

▼

Zeitler

11

Grønning

24

▼

Christens

8

▼

Kanurić

14

▼

Plath

29

▼

43

32

16

22

26

1

21

15

23

29

▼

Ruschke

42

A

▼

Dietze

5

Schuster

19

Mejdr

14

⚽

▼

Lebeau

18

⚽

▼

Haugen

20

A

▼

Naderi

Manager: D. Brinkmann

73'▲C. Kinsombi←▼S. Haugen

74'▲K. Manu←▼B. Dietze

85'▲D. Gebuhr←▼A. Lebeau

88'▲T. Krohn←▼R. Naderi

88'▲D. Roßbach←▼F. Ruschke

Hansa Rostock substitutes

27Kinsombi22Manu24Gebuhr44Krohn4Roßbach28Suso36Bock13Schumacher25Klewin

Manager: S. Wittmann

46'▲P. Testroet←▼D. Kopacz

54'▲E. Gül←▼B. Kanurić

55'▲T. Heike←▼D. Zeitler

69'▲Y. Deichmann←▼G. Christensen

78'▲E. Decker←▼M. Plath

FC Ingolstadt 04 substitutes

37Testroet5Gül9Heike20Deichmann3Decker7Borkowski1Funk18Dühring23Seiffert

League #80: Hansa Rostock 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 04

Hansa Rostock beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 in League #80 on March 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Lebeau (28'), S. Haugen (42').

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #80: Hansa Rostock 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 04