Hannover 96 U19 6–0 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

J. Neiß 89', 84', 36'

S. Stehle 66'

E. Beck 21'

A. Džafo 12'

11/10/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1196 - DAS STADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hannover 96 U1958%

×Draw20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.38

Hannover 96 U19

2.29

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.38

Hannover 96 U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 60 away

2.41

creates per match

1.37

1.38

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.38

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

77%

Hannover 96 U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

80%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

42%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

36%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

90%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

66%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

40%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

75%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

40%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.41 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.29

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

23%

Hannover 96 U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Džafo

21'

E. Beck

36'

J. Neiß

46'

F. Modler← Z. Piplica

46'

K. Amesse← D. Lehmpfuhl

46'

N. Boog← R. Winkler

61'

L. Damer← E. Beck

66'

S. Stehle

68'

M. Kummer← A. Džafo

74'

R. Rüther← T. Walbrecht

78'

J. Heublein← N. Jahn

82'

M. Schwitalla← S. Soto

84'

J. Neiß

89'

J. Neiß

Hannover

Carl

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

Beck

Manager: S. Schmidt

61'▲L. Damer←▼E. Beck

68'▲M. Kummer←▼A. Džafo

74'▲R. Rüther←▼T. Walbrecht

82'▲M. Schwitalla←▼S. Soto

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

DamerKummerRütherSchwitallaDrathTomicKuballa

Manager: C. Fröhlich

46'▲F. Modler←▼Z. Piplica

46'▲K. Amesse←▼D. Lehmpfuhl

46'▲N. Boog←▼R. Winkler

78'▲J. Heublein←▼N. Jahn

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

ModlerAmesseBoogHeubleinDedidisFeriziFleischer

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 6–0 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 10, 2018.

Goals: A. Džafo (12'), E. Beck (21'), J. Neiß (36', 84', 89'), S. Stehle (66').

The match was played at 96 - DAS STADION in Hannover.

Hannover 96 U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hannover 96 U19 6–0 Carl Zeiss Jena U19