Hannover 96 U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Hannover 96 U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2/26/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Kunstrasenplatz Clausewitzstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hannover 96 U1952%

×Draw21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.52

Hannover 96 U19

2.18

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.52

Hannover 96 U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 47 away

2.27

creates per match

1.62

1.43

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.27

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.62

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.43

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

73%

Hannover 96 U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

79%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

48%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

31%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

89%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

64%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

37%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

78%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

45%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.27 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.18

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.62 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

52%

level

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

27%

Hannover 96 U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff