Carl Zeiss Jena U19 0–3 Hannover 96 U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hannover 96 U19

J. Rufidis 90+1'

A. Džafo 83'

S. Stehle 75'

4/27/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 24Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1937%

×Draw21%

Hannover 96 U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchHannover 96 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.04

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.92

Hannover 96 U19

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

2.02

creates per match

2.07

2.00

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Hannover 96 U19

2.07

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Hannover 96 U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

58%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Hannover 96 U19

79%

Draw or Hannover 96 U19

63%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

85%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

57%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

30%

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

87%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

60%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.07 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

42%

Hannover 96 U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

M. Kummer← F. Trümner

41'

R. Rüther← T. Walbrecht

56'

A. Džafo← L. Damer

72'

F. Modler← K. Amesse

75'

S. Stehle

83'

J. Scheibe← M. Leibelt

83'

A. Džafo

89'

M. Schwitalla← M. Gudra

90+1'

J. Rufidis

Carl

Hannover

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Verhoene

72'▲F. Modler←▼K. Amesse

83'▲J. Scheibe←▼M. Leibelt

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

ModlerScheibeLehmpfuhlHeubleinKöhlerFleischerReithmeir

Manager: S. Schmidt

41'▲M. Kummer←▼F. Trümner

41'▲R. Rüther←▼T. Walbrecht

56'▲A. Džafo←▼L. Damer

89'▲M. Schwitalla←▼M. Gudra

Hannover 96 U19 substitutes

KummerRütherDžafoSchwitallaKoppitzSoeradhiningratYilmaz