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Colchester vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
8/11/2018League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Colchester40%
×Draw28%
Port Vale33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.27
Port Vale
1.13

Colchester creates 12% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 118 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
67%
Colchester or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
60%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
18%
Port Vale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
36%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
68%
Port Vale 2+ goals
31%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
55%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more
40%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
33%

Colchester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Port Vale

Colchester beat Port Vale 2-0 in League Two on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.