Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborgadvanced
6/25/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Quarter-finalsTele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hammarby FF48%
×Draw21%
IFK Goteborg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.05
IFK Goteborg
1.63

Hammarby FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
3.05
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

Hammarby FF
0.79
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
69%
Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg
79%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
52%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
27%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
87%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
61%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
33%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
80%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
48%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
60%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 3.05, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 3.05 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 2.05

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Hammarby FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
48%
level
21%
IFK Goteborg scores more
31%

Hammarby FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg

Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 25, 2020.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.