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HamKam II vs Hønefoss — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hønefoss
Hønefoss
9/18/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 20Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II46%
×Draw19%
Hønefoss35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
2.48
Hønefoss
2.15

HamKam II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

HamKam II
3.46
Hønefoss
2.44

allows per match

HamKam II
1.85
Hønefoss
1.50

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Hønefoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
65%
HamKam II or Hønefoss
81%
Draw or Hønefoss
54%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
28%
Hønefoss wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
92%
HamKam II 2+ goals
70%
HamKam II 3+ goals
44%
Hønefoss 1+ goals
88%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
63%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
57%
Hønefoss (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Hønefoss defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hønefoss attack 2.44 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HamKam II scores more
46%
level
19%
Hønefoss scores more
35%

HamKam II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: HamKam II 2–2 Hønefoss

HamKam II and Hønefoss drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 18, 2023.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.