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Hønefoss vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hønefoss
Hønefoss
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
7/8/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 13AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hønefoss64%
×Draw18%
HamKam II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss
2.58
HamKam II
1.34

Hønefoss creates 93% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hønefoss
2.61
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Hønefoss
1.06
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw
82%
Hønefoss or HamKam II
82%
Draw or HamKam II
36%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+
42%
HamKam II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals
92%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
72%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
47%
HamKam II 1+ goals
74%
HamKam II 2+ goals
39%
HamKam II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)
77%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 2.61 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.58

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Hønefoss defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hønefoss scores more
64%
level
18%
HamKam II scores more
18%

Hønefoss at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hønefoss vs HamKam II

Hønefoss beat HamKam II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.