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Hønefoss vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Hønefoss
Hønefoss
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
10/27/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 26AKA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hønefoss78%
×Draw12%
HamKam II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hønefoss
3.92
HamKam II
1.46

Hønefoss creates 168% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hønefoss
4.85
HamKam II
2.23

allows per match

Hønefoss
0.69
HamKam II
3.00

finishing

Hønefoss+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hønefoss ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Hønefoss or draw
90%
Hønefoss or HamKam II
88%
Draw or HamKam II
22%

Winning margin

Hønefoss wins by 2+
61%
HamKam II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hønefoss 1+ goals
98%
Hønefoss 2+ goals
89%
Hønefoss 3+ goals
72%
HamKam II 1+ goals
77%
HamKam II 2+ goals
43%
HamKam II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hønefoss (draw refunded)
88%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hønefoss at home — creates 4.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hønefoss attack 4.85 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.92

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Hønefoss defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hønefoss scores more
78%
level
12%
HamKam II scores more
10%

Hønefoss at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hønefoss vs HamKam II

Hønefoss beat HamKam II 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at AKA Arena in Hønefoss.