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HamKam II vs Elverum — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

HamKam II
HamKam II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Elverum
Elverum
5/6/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 5Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II40%
×Draw22%
Elverum38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HamKam II
1.90
Elverum
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

HamKam II
2.54
Elverum
2.11

allows per match

HamKam II
1.62
Elverum
1.26

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par
Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Elverum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw
62%
HamKam II or Elverum
78%
Draw or Elverum
60%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+
21%
Elverum wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals
85%
HamKam II 2+ goals
56%
HamKam II 3+ goals
29%
Elverum 1+ goals
84%
Elverum 2+ goals
55%
Elverum 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)
51%
Elverum (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Elverum away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 2.54 + Elverum defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Elverum attack 2.11 + HamKam II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HamKam II scores more
40%
level
22%
Elverum scores more
38%

HamKam II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: HamKam II 4–2 Elverum

HamKam II beat Elverum 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 6, 2024.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.