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Elverum vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Elverum
Elverum
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
10/20/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 25Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Elverum77%
×Draw13%
HamKam II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elverum
3.38
HamKam II
1.20

Elverum creates 182% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Elverum
4.08
HamKam II
1.54

allows per match

Elverum
0.85
HamKam II
2.69

finishing

Elverum+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elverum ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Elverum or draw
90%
Elverum or HamKam II
87%
Draw or HamKam II
23%

Winning margin

Elverum wins by 2+
59%
HamKam II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Elverum 1+ goals
96%
Elverum 2+ goals
84%
Elverum 3+ goals
64%
HamKam II 1+ goals
70%
HamKam II 2+ goals
34%
HamKam II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elverum (draw refunded)
88%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elverum at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elverum attack 4.08 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 3.38

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Elverum defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Elverum scores more
77%
level
13%
HamKam II scores more
10%

Elverum at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elverum vs HamKam II

Elverum beat HamKam II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 20, 2025.

The match was played at Elverum Stadion in Elverum.