HamKam II 1–1 Elverum: Result & Stats

HamKam II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Elverum

10/9/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 23Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HamKam II48%

×Draw19%

Elverum33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HamKam IIExpected goals in this matchElverum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.16

HamKam II

2.63

Elverum

2.16

HamKam II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

3.46

creates per match

2.46

1.85

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

HamKam II

3.46

Elverum

2.46

allows per match

HamKam II

1.85

Elverum

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HamKam II+0.00on par

Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HamKam II ↓

Elverum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

HamKam II or draw

67%

HamKam II or Elverum

81%

Draw or Elverum

52%

Winning margin

HamKam II wins by 2+

30%

Elverum wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

HamKam II 1+ goals

93%

HamKam II 2+ goals

73%

HamKam II 3+ goals

48%

Elverum 1+ goals

88%

Elverum 2+ goals

63%

Elverum 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

HamKam II (draw refunded)

60%

Elverum (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HamKam II at home — creates 3.46, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Elverum away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HamKam II attack 3.46 + Elverum defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.63

Elverum attack 2.46 + HamKam II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HamKam II scores more

48%

level

19%

Elverum scores more

33%

HamKam II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff