Hamburger SV U19 3–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

B. Yalçınkaya 42'

D. Rath 33'

L. Bornschein 27'

L. Krause 90+3'

J. Zickler 71'

A. Hradiský 45+5'

10/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Hamburger SV U1949%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.63

Hamburger SV U19

2.13

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.63

Hamburger SV U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

2.49

creates per match

1.55

1.71

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

70%

Hamburger SV U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

51%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

29%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

88%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

63%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

35%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

80%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

48%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

30%

Hamburger SV U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Gandert← M. Sarfo-Adjei

27'

33'

42'

45+5'

59'

O. Ohnesorge← A. Hradiský

66'

L. Eising← N. Tuppeck

66'

N. Wallenßus← E. Jaschan

70'

C. Förster← N. Orth

70'

C. Tölg← D. Arnold

71'

J. Zickler

81'

C. Forster

81'

C. Forster

85'

M. Raschke← Q. Grafe

85'

M. Seifert← J. Zickler

89'

A. Buljubašić← Saido Balde

89'

C. Nana-Sarhene← G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

90+3'

L. Krause

Hamburger

Dynamo

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Johrden

11'▲J. Gandert←▼M. Sarfo-Adjei

66'▲L. Eising←▼N. Tuppeck

66'▲N. Wallenßus←▼E. Jaschan

89'▲A. Buljubašić←▼Saido Balde

89'▲C. Nana-Sarhene←▼G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

GandertEisingWallenßusBuljubašićNana-SarheneNabeHeinbockel

Manager: W. Weiße

59'▲O. Ohnesorge←▼A. Hradiský

70'▲C. Förster←▼N. Orth

70'▲C. Tölg←▼D. Arnold

85'▲M. Raschke←▼Q. Grafe

85'▲M. Seifert←▼J. Zickler

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

OhnesorgeFörsterTölgRaschkeSeifertKummerowEndmann

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 3–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Hamburger SV U19 and Dynamo Dresden U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on October 21, 2023.

Goals: L. Bornschein (27'), D. Rath (33'), B. Yalçınkaya (42'), A. Hradiský (45+5'), J. Zickler (71'), L. Krause (90+3').

The match was played at Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10 in Norderstedt.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 3–3 Dynamo Dresden U19