Dynamo Dresden U19 4–1 Hamburger SV U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Hamburger SV U19

J. Zickler 71', 43'

L. Krause 38' (pen)

Q. Grafe 12'

C. Nana-Sarhene 35'

4/6/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 21Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1943%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.82

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.00

Hamburger SV U19

1.82

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

2.19

creates per match

2.10

1.54

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

64%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

57%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

24%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

59%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

32%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

84%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

54%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

43%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

36%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Q. Grafe

16'

S. Heinbockel← H. Hermann

35'

C. Nana-Sarhene

38'

L. KrausePenalty

43'

J. Zickler

45+1'

D. Richardt← Saido Balde

46'

A. Buljubašić← C. Nana-Sarhene

46'

A. da Graça Marques← N. Hoffmann

59'

C. Tölg← Q. Grafe

68'

N. Tuppeck← G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

71'

J. Zickler

76'

C. Förster← L. Krause

76'

O. Ohnesorge← D. Bohdanov

86'

B. Kummerow← N. Orth

86'

F. Göpfert← J. Zickler

Dynamo

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Zickler

⚽

▼

Krause

Zeil

⚽

▼

Grafe

▼

Orth

▼

Bohdanov

Manager: W. Weiße

59'▲C. Tölg←▼Q. Grafe

76'▲C. Förster←▼L. Krause

76'▲O. Ohnesorge←▼D. Bohdanov

86'▲B. Kummerow←▼N. Orth

86'▲F. Göpfert←▼J. Zickler

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

TölgFörsterOhnesorgeKummerowGöpfertArnoldBodem

Manager: T. Johrden

16'▲S. Heinbockel←▼H. Hermann

45+1'▲D. Richardt←▼Saido Balde

46'▲A. Buljubašić←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

46'▲A. da Graça Marques←▼N. Hoffmann

68'▲N. Tuppeck←▼G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

HeinbockelRichardtBuljubašićMarquesTuppeckJaschanNehl