Hamburger SV U19 0–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

L. Ehrlich 87'

J. Hasenberg 66'

J.Saliger 33'

8/14/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Hamburger SV U1950%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.62

Hamburger SV U19

2.14

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.62

Hamburger SV U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

2.52

creates per match

1.55

1.69

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.52

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.69

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

71%

Hamburger SV U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

29%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

88%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

63%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

36%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

80%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

48%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.69 · 77 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.52 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.14

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

29%

Hamburger SV U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J.Saliger

45+2'

B. Lamce← O. Megeed

60'

L. Ehrlich← C. Kosak

66'

J. Oehmichen← E. Zeil

66'

N. Orth← C. Bräunling

66'

J. Hasenberg

70'

L. Butkovic← M. Nejad Haji Lor

78'

G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya← J. Kilo

81'

L. Krause← J. Spica

81'

M. Krause← J. Hoffmann

87'

L. Ehrlich

90+2'

N. Wallenßus← E. Appiah

Hamburger

Dynamo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Kirch

45+2'▲B. Lamce←▼O. Megeed

70'▲L. Butkovic←▼M. Nejad Haji Lor

78'▲G. Kiveta-Ndongalasiya←▼J. Kilo

90+2'▲N. Wallenßus←▼E. Appiah

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

LamceButkovicKiveta-NdongalasiyaWallenßusCeesayHermannSrougbo

Manager: W. Weisse

60'▲L. Ehrlich←▼C. Kosak

66'▲J. Oehmichen←▼E. Zeil

66'▲N. Orth←▼C. Bräunling

81'▲L. Krause←▼J. Spica

81'▲M. Krause←▼J. Hoffmann

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

EhrlichOehmichenOrthKrauseKrauseMenzelVollmer

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2022.

Goals: J.Saliger (33'), J. Hasenberg (66'), L. Ehrlich (87').

The match was played at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage in Hamburg.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19