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Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
F. Schyberg 69'
6/1/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Halmstad29%
×Draw28%
Djurgardens IF43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.29

Djurgardens IF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 124 away

creates per match

Halmstad
0.94
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Halmstad
1.19
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
57%
Halmstad or Djurgardens IF
72%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
71%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
11%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
63%
Halmstad 2+ goals
26%
Halmstad 3+ goals
8%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
72%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
37%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
40%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 0.94 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Halmstad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Halmstad scores more
29%
level
28%
Djurgardens IF scores more
43%

Djurgardens IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
V. GranathHalmstadHalmstad · M
8.5

Match Events

18'
Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen
46'
T. Nguen← K. Jawla
50'
Isak Alemayehu
56'
A. Ekdal← I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
56'
T. Bergvall← A. Stahl
60'
N. Mohammed← L. Arvidsson
69'
F. Schyberg↳ N. Mohammed
72'
Z. Sawo← S. Haarala
72'
H. Finndell← V. Bergh
76'
N. Maenpaa← G. Eyjolfsson
76'
P. Chrupalla← G. Friberg
88'
G. Wallentin← Y. Agnero
90+4'
Filip Schyberg
90+2'
Tim Erlandsson
90+2'
Tokmac Nguen

Possession

36%Halmstad

Shots

14Halmstad

Pass accuracy

46%Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadDjurgardens
Overview
36%Possession64%
14Total Shots14
3.35Expected Goals (xG)0.42
1Corners5
14Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots14
6On Target4
6Off Target2
2Blocked8
10Inside Box9
4Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
280Total Passes491
210Accurate Passes425
75%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF

Halmstad beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on June 1, 2025.

Goals: F. Schyberg (69').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.