Djurgardens IF 2–0 Halmstad: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Halmstad

T. Nguen 16'

G. Wikheim 7'

5/20/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 10Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Djurgardens IF58%

×Draw23%

Halmstad19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.91

Djurgardens IF

1.81

Halmstad

0.91

Djurgardens IF creates 99% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 67 away

1.83

creates per match

0.84

0.97

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

1.83

Halmstad

0.84

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

0.97

Halmstad

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

81%

Djurgardens IF or Halmstad

77%

Draw or Halmstad

42%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

34%

Halmstad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

84%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

54%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

27%

Halmstad 1+ goals

60%

Halmstad 2+ goals

23%

Halmstad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

76%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

Halmstad away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + Halmstad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Halmstad attack 0.84 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

58%

level

23%

Halmstad scores more

19%

Djurgardens IF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Bergvall

Djurgardens IF · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

G. Wikheim↳ D. Hümmet

16'

T. Nguen↳ J. Widell Zetterström

28'

Joseph Baffo

52'

Gustav Wikheim

61'

O. Fallenius← T. Nguen

63'

Jonathan Svedberg

69'

R. Wiedesheim-Paul← N. Mohammed

69'

B. Ingason← Viktor Granath

76'

J. Allansson← J. Svedberg

77'

H. Radetinac← G. Wikheim

85'

A. Ahlstrand← G. Eyjólfsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DjurgardensHalmstad

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots8

8Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots8

6On Target2

8Off Target4

10Blocked2

16Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

553Total Passes411

476Accurate Passes334

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3