Halmstad 1–0 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

Y. Agnero 51'

11/3/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 29Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Halmstad29%

×Draw28%

Djurgardens IF43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.29

Halmstad

1.00

Djurgardens IF

1.29

Djurgardens IF creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 124 away

0.94

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Halmstad

0.94

Djurgardens IF

1.40

allows per match

Halmstad

1.19

Djurgardens IF

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

57%

Halmstad or Djurgardens IF

72%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

71%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

11%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

63%

Halmstad 2+ goals

26%

Halmstad 3+ goals

8%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

72%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

37%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

40%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 67 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 0.94 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Halmstad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Halmstad scores more

29%

level

28%

Djurgardens IF scores more

43%

Djurgardens IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Wallentin

Halmstad · D

7.5

Match Events

43'

Andreas Johansson

51'

Y. Agnero↳ A. Boman

61'

P. Åslund← T. Gulliksen

61'

A. Ekdal← D. Stensson

68'

Gustav Wikheim

72'

Vinicius Nogueira

76'

B. Kurtulus← M. Olsson

76'

B. Turgott← Y. Agnero

77'

Villiam Granath← G. Eyjólfsson

77'

S. Haarala← G. Wikheim

77'

M. Eriksson← B. Šabović

82'

Deniz Hümmet

85'

A. Priske← T. Nguen

90+6'

Villiam Granath

90+3'

J. Baffoe← Vinícius Nogueira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HalmstadDjurgardens

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots7

3Corners3

23Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

346Total Passes483

236Accurate Passes371

68%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

23Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5