Halmstad 0–5 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Degerfors IF

O. Faraj 90' (pen), 83', 74' (pen), 55', 45'

3/30/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 1Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Halmstad40%

×Draw25%

Degerfors IF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.38

Halmstad

1.50

Degerfors IF

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

1.30

1.46

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Halmstad

1.18

Degerfors IF

1.30

allows per match

Halmstad

1.46

Degerfors IF

1.83

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Halmstad-0.22scores less

Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

65%

Halmstad or Degerfors IF

75%

Draw or Degerfors IF

60%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

19%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

78%

Halmstad 2+ goals

44%

Halmstad 3+ goals

19%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

75%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

40%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

54%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.18 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + Halmstad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more

40%

level

25%

Degerfors IF scores more

35%

Halmstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

O. Faraj

Degerfors IF · F

10.0

Match Events

23'

44'

45'

52'

55'

61'

G. Eyjolfsson← B. Ingason

61'

N. Mohammed← N. Maenpaa

66'

T. Gronborg← E. Barsoum

66'

M. Lundgren← E. Pihlstrom

67'

Gísli Eyjólfsson

68'

Pascal Gregor

74'

O. FarajPenalty

76'

G. Wallentin← P. Gregor

76'

E. Lindell← S. Ohlsson

78'

83'

85'

85'

90'

O. FarajPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HalmstadDegerfors

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots18

0.33Expected Goals (xG)4.44

5Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots18

4On Target9

2Off Target6

1Blocked3

1Inside Box12

6Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

480Total Passes286

386Accurate Passes209

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3