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Degerfors IF vs Halmstad — Allsvenskan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Halmstad
Halmstad
J. Pikkarainen 16' (OG)
10/20/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 27Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Degerfors IF42%
×Draw26%
Halmstad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.44
Halmstad
1.22

Degerfors IF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.14
Halmstad
1.02

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.42
Halmstad
1.74

finishing

Degerfors IF-0.38scores less
Halmstad-0.18scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
68%
Degerfors IF or Halmstad
74%
Draw or Halmstad
58%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
20%
Halmstad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
76%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
42%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
18%
Halmstad 1+ goals
70%
Halmstad 2+ goals
34%
Halmstad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
57%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 21 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.14 + Halmstad defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Halmstad attack 1.02 + Degerfors IF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
42%
level
26%
Halmstad scores more
32%

Degerfors IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
F. SchybergHalmstadHalmstad · D
7.9

Match Events

16'
J. PikkarainenOwn goal
66'
A. Taranis← R. Omorowa
66'
S. Haarala← S. Ohlsson
72'
N. Maenpaa← E. Yeboah
77'
E. Barsoum← M. Rafferty
80'
Villiam Granath
86'
Tim Erlandsson
88'
M. Olsson← R. Ascone
90'
Arman Taranis
90+5'
Bleon Kurtulus
90+4'
M. Persson← N. Mohammed

Possession

61%Degerfors

Shots

15Degerfors

Pass accuracy

55%Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsHalmstad
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots10
4Corners7
11Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots10
2On Target1
8Off Target7
5Blocked2
11Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
491Total Passes322
376Accurate Passes204
77%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls18
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Degerfors IF 0–1 Halmstad

Halmstad beat Degerfors IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on October 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Pikkarainen (16' o.g.).

Degerfors IF controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.