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Halmstad vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
10/7/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 26Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Halmstad40%
×Draw25%
Degerfors IF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.50
Degerfors IF
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.18
Degerfors IF
1.30

allows per match

Halmstad
1.46
Degerfors IF
1.83

finishing

Halmstad-0.22scores less
Degerfors IF+0.18scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
65%
Halmstad or Degerfors IF
75%
Draw or Degerfors IF
60%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
19%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
78%
Halmstad 2+ goals
44%
Halmstad 3+ goals
19%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
75%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
40%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
54%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.18 + Degerfors IF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Degerfors IF attack 1.30 + Halmstad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more
40%
level
25%
Degerfors IF scores more
35%

Halmstad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. KoračDegerfors IFDegerfors IF · D
8.2

Match Events

13'
Seid Korac
18'
Johan Martensson
31'
Kazper Karlsson
65'
Viktor Granath← N. Mohammed
71'
T. Boakye← K. Karlsson
76'
O. Wallin← D. Bergqvist
76'
Pashang Abdulla← G. Lindgren
87'
Thomas Boakye
90+2'
J. Salmon← H. Bolin

Possession

41%Halmstad

Shots

15Halmstad

Pass accuracy

48%Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadDegerfors
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots10
1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.67
5Corners2
16Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target1
8Off Target4
3Blocked5
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
369Total Passes544
285Accurate Passes446
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Halmstad vs Degerfors IF

Halmstad and Degerfors IF drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on October 7, 2023.

Degerfors IF controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.