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Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

Halmstad
Halmstad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
Villiam Granath 83'
I. Pittas 57'
Rui Modesto 14'
7/15/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Halmstad33%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Halmstad
1.15
AIK Stockholm
1.29

AIK Stockholm creates 12% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Halmstad
1.21
AIK Stockholm
1.05

allows per match

Halmstad
1.53
AIK Stockholm
1.09

finishing

Halmstad-0.25scores less
AIK Stockholm+0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw
60%
Halmstad or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
67%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+
13%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals
68%
Halmstad 2+ goals
32%
Halmstad 3+ goals
11%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
72%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
37%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)
45%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 27 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.21 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

AIK Stockholm attack 1.05 + Halmstad defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Halmstad scores more
33%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
40%

AIK Stockholm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
I. PittasAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · F
8.3

Match Events

14'
Rui Modesto↳ A. Salétros
32'
Joseph Baffo
57'
I. Pittas
70'
J. Allansson← J. Svedberg
71'
R. Wiedesheim-Paul← B. Ingason
78'
D. Beširović← Lamine Dabo
78'
J. Guidetti← Omar Faraj
83'
Villiam Granath
84'
Dino Beširović
89'
S. Papagiannopoulos← M. Thychosen

Possession

37%Halmstad

Shots

9Halmstad

Pass accuracy

48%Halmstad

Statistics

HalmstadAIK
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots17
0.77Expected Goals (xG)1.72
0Corners2
10Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots17
4On Target5
2Off Target8
3Blocked4
4Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
375Total Passes647
291Accurate Passes554
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Halmstad vs AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Halmstad 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 15, 2024.

Goals: Rui Modesto (14'), I. Pittas (57'), Villiam Granath (83').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Örjans Vall in Halmstad.