AIK Stockholm 5–1 Halmstad: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Halmstad

I. Pittas 88', 29'

A. Salétros 60'

E. Edh 45+1'

O. Valakari 44'

Y. Agnero 32'

11/10/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 30Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

AIK Stockholm51%

×Draw24%

Halmstad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchHalmstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

AIK Stockholm

1.66

Halmstad

1.07

AIK Stockholm creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.57

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.57

Halmstad

1.02

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.13

Halmstad

1.74

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more

Halmstad-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Halmstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

75%

AIK Stockholm or Halmstad

76%

Draw or Halmstad

49%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

27%

Halmstad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

81%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

49%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

23%

Halmstad 1+ goals

66%

Halmstad 2+ goals

29%

Halmstad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

68%

Halmstad (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.74 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + Halmstad defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.66

Halmstad attack 1.02 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

51%

level

24%

Halmstad scores more

25%

AIK Stockholm at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Lamine Fanne

AIK Stockholm · M

9.3

Match Events

17'

Yannick Agnero

19'

Bersant Celina

29'

I. Pittas↳ O. Valakari

32'

36'

38'

38'

44'

45+1'

46'

B. Kurtulus← N. Mäenpää

46'

B. Turgott← Y. Agnero

52'

Alexander Milošević

60'

A. Salétros↳ Lamine Fanne

65'

Villiam Granath← G. Eyjólfsson

76'

J. Guidetti← A. Salétros

76'

A. Björnström← E. Edh

82'

T. Isherwood← A. Milošević

82'

A. Ahlstrand← J. Allansson

87'

V. Andersson← O. Valakari

87'

T. Boakye← Vinícius Nogueira

88'

Ahmad Faqa← D. Beširović

88'

I. Pittas↳ Lamine Fanne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKHalmstad

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots6

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.59

6Corners2

11Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots6

8On Target3

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

534Total Passes299

459Accurate Passes231

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0