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Hødd II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
6/2/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 9Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hødd II40%
×Draw21%
Funnefoss / Vormsund39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
1.93
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hødd II
1.23
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.15

allows per match

Hødd II
2.62
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.62

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
61%
Hødd II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
79%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
60%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
22%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
85%
Hødd II 2+ goals
57%
Hødd II 3+ goals
30%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
85%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
56%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
51%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 1.23 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.15 + Hødd II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hødd II scores more
40%
level
21%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
39%

Hødd II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Hødd II 2–0 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Hødd II beat Funnefoss / Vormsund 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.