Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hødd II
Hødd II
9/16/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 20Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund58%
×Draw19%
Hødd II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.44
Hødd II
1.48

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.00
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.23
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw
77%
Funnefoss / Vormsund or Hødd II
81%
Draw or Hødd II
42%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
37%
Hødd II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
91%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
70%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
43%
Hødd II 1+ goals
77%
Hødd II 2+ goals
43%
Hødd II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
72%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 2.00 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
58%
level
19%
Hødd II scores more
23%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Funnefoss / Vormsund vs Hødd II

Funnefoss / Vormsund beat Hødd II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Funnefoss gress in Oppaker.