Funnefoss / Vormsund 3–0 Hødd II: Result & Stats

Funnefoss / Vormsund

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hødd II

8/3/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 15Funnefoss gress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund57%

×Draw21%

Hødd II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Funnefoss / VormsundExpected goals in this matchHødd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.31

Funnefoss / Vormsund

2.16

Hødd II

1.31

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.23

creates per match

1.00

1.62

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.23

Hødd II

1.00

allows per match

Funnefoss / Vormsund

1.62

Hødd II

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Funnefoss / Vormsund ↓

Hødd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Funnefoss / Vormsund or draw

77%

Funnefoss / Vormsund or Hødd II

79%

Draw or Hødd II

43%

Winning margin

Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+

34%

Hødd II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals

88%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals

63%

Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals

36%

Hødd II 1+ goals

73%

Hødd II 2+ goals

38%

Hødd II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)

71%

Hødd II (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Funnefoss / Vormsund at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.23 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.16

Hødd II attack 1.00 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more

57%

level

21%

Hødd II scores more

23%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff