Gyori ETO II 4–3 Csornai SE: Result & Stats

Gyori ETO II

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Csornai SE

11/26/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 17ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gyori ETO II53%

×Draw21%

Csornai SE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyori ETO IIExpected goals in this matchCsornai SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.34

Gyori ETO II

2.04

Csornai SE

1.34

Gyori ETO II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.76

creates per match

0.93

1.76

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Csornai SE

0.93

allows per match

Gyori ETO II

1.76

Csornai SE

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Csornai SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw

75%

Gyori ETO II or Csornai SE

79%

Draw or Csornai SE

47%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

31%

Csornai SE wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

87%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

60%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

33%

Csornai SE 1+ goals

74%

Csornai SE 2+ goals

39%

Csornai SE 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

68%

Csornai SE (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 1.76 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more

53%

level

21%

Csornai SE scores more

25%

Gyori ETO II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff