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Gyori ETO II vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
5/14/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 37ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyori ETO II62%
×Draw19%
Csornai SE18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyori ETO II
2.33
Csornai SE
1.19

Gyori ETO II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gyori ETO II
2.08
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Gyori ETO II
1.37
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw
82%
Gyori ETO II or Csornai SE
81%
Draw or Csornai SE
38%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
40%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
90%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
67%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
41%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
70%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
33%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
77%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 2.08 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more
62%
level
19%
Csornai SE scores more
18%

Gyori ETO II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyori ETO II vs Csornai SE

Gyori ETO II and Csornai SE drew 3-3 in NB III - Southwest on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at ETO Park in Győr.