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Csornai SE vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Csornai SE
Csornai SE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
8/2/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 2Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csornai SE35%
×Draw23%
Gyori ETO II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csornai SE
1.57
Gyori ETO II
1.74

Gyori ETO II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Csornai SE
1.27
Gyori ETO II
1.60

allows per match

Csornai SE
1.87
Gyori ETO II
1.87

finishing

Csornai SE+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csornai SE ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Csornai SE or draw
58%
Csornai SE or Gyori ETO II
77%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
65%

Winning margin

Csornai SE wins by 2+
17%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Csornai SE 1+ goals
79%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
46%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
21%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
82%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
52%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Csornai SE (draw refunded)
45%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csornai SE at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csornai SE attack 1.27 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gyori ETO II attack 1.60 + Csornai SE defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csornai SE scores more
35%
level
23%
Gyori ETO II scores more
42%

Gyori ETO II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Csornai SE 3 – 0 Gyori ETO II

Csornai SE beat Gyori ETO II 3-0 in NB III - Northwest on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kocsis István Városi Sporttelep in Csorna.