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Gulf Heroes vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
11/5/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 8Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes17%
×Draw21%
Dibba Al-Fujairah62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
0.93
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2.00

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 115% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.95

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.77

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
38%
Gulf Heroes or Dibba Al-Fujairah
79%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
83%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
6%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
61%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
24%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
7%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
86%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
59%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
21%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.93

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
17%
level
21%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
62%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf Heroes vs Dibba Al-Fujairah

Gulf Heroes and Dibba Al-Fujairah drew 2-2 in Division 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.