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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
Saymon Cabral 84'
D. da Silva Farias 52'
Diogo Acosta 44'
L. Camara 25'
4/27/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 25Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah58%
×Draw21%
Gulf Heroes21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
2.02
Gulf Heroes
1.13

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 79% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
79%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Gulf Heroes
79%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
42%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
35%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
87%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
60%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
33%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
68%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
31%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
73%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.02

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
58%
level
21%
Gulf Heroes scores more
21%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
L. Camara
44'
Diogo Acosta
52'
D. da Silva Farias
84'
Saymon Cabral

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3 – 1 Gulf Heroes

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Gulf Heroes 3-1 in Division 1 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: L. Camara (25'), Diogo Acosta (44'), D. da Silva Farias (52'), Saymon Cabral (84').

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.