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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
11/8/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Round - 5Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng46%
×Draw27%
Beijing Renhe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37
Beijing Renhe
0.98

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 40% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
73%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Beijing Renhe
73%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
54%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
22%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
75%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
40%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
16%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
62%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
26%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
63%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
46%
level
27%
Beijing Renhe scores more
27%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Renhe

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Beijing Renhe 3-0 in League One on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch in Dongguan.