Guizhou Zhicheng 1–1 Beijing Renhe: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beijing Renhe

9/2/2018

Super League · Round 21Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng46%

×Draw25%

Beijing Renhe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchBeijing Renhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.23

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.62

Beijing Renhe

1.23

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.27

creates per match

0.80

1.67

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Beijing Renhe

0.80

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Beijing Renhe

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Beijing Renhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

71%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Beijing Renhe

75%

Draw or Beijing Renhe

54%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

24%

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

80%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

48%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

71%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

35%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

62%

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

46%

level

25%

Beijing Renhe scores more

29%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff