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Beijing Renhe vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
4/14/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Beijing Renhe51%
×Draw22%
Guizhou Zhicheng27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.95
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.36

Beijing Renhe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
73%
Beijing Renhe or Guizhou Zhicheng
78%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
49%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
29%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
86%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
58%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
31%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.95

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
51%
level
22%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
27%

Beijing Renhe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Renhe 2–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Beijing Renhe beat Guizhou Zhicheng 2-1 in Super League on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.