Guingamp 3–0 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grenoble

A. Sagna 67'

J. Siwe 57'

B. Labeau 1'

11/2/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Guingamp43%

×Draw27%

Grenoble29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.07

Guingamp

1.36

Grenoble

1.07

Guingamp creates 27% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 138 away

1.40

creates per match

0.94

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

Grenoble

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

71%

Guingamp or Grenoble

73%

Draw or Grenoble

57%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

20%

Grenoble wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

74%

Guingamp 2+ goals

39%

Guingamp 3+ goals

16%

Grenoble 1+ goals

66%

Grenoble 2+ goals

29%

Grenoble 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

60%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Grenoble defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guingamp scores more

43%

level

27%

Grenoble scores more

29%

Guingamp at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Basilio

Guingamp · G

8.6

Match Events

1'

3'

56'

57'

60'

60'

A. Jabbari← A. Kérouédan

61'

67'

72'

73'

73'

73'

74'

77'

T. Luvambo← D. Louiserre

82'

M. Bangré← J. Olaïtan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampGrenoble

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots19

4Corners8

7Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots19

8On Target8

6Off Target8

4Blocked3

13Inside Box10

5Outside Box9

Passing

49%Possession51%

435Total Passes446

371Accurate Passes380

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

8Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Ligue 2: Guingamp 3–0 Grenoble

Guingamp beat Grenoble 3-0 in Ligue 2 on November 2, 2024.

Goals: B. Labeau (1'), J. Siwe (57'), A. Sagna (67').

Grenoble controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.

Guingamp vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Guingamp 3–0 Grenoble