Grenoble 0–0 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guingamp

3/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Grenoble39%

×Draw28%

Guingamp33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Grenoble

1.23

Guingamp

1.10

Grenoble creates 12% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 129 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

0.95

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Grenoble

1.18

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

Grenoble

0.95

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

67%

Grenoble or Guingamp

72%

Draw or Guingamp

61%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

17%

Guingamp wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

71%

Grenoble 2+ goals

35%

Grenoble 3+ goals

13%

Guingamp 1+ goals

67%

Guingamp 2+ goals

30%

Guingamp 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

54%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grenoble scores more

39%

level

28%

Guingamp scores more

33%

Grenoble at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Sivis

Guingamp · D

7.6

Match Events

46'

L. Nestor← A. Monfray

64'

Abdoulie Sanyang

68'

N. Thio← P. Meïssa Ba

69'

E. Sylvestre← A. Sanyang

69'

76'

77'

78'

86'

U. Bonnet← B. Guillaume

86'

J. Siwe← A. El Ouazzani

88'

Maxime Sivis

90+3'

Dante Rigo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleGuingamp

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots10

10Corners0

6Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target0

4Off Target6

3Blocked4

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

507Total Passes398

381Accurate Passes281

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1