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Grenoble vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
J. Benet 33'
A. Hemia 48'
2/21/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Grenoble39%
×Draw28%
Guingamp33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.23
Guingamp
1.10

Grenoble creates 12% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 129 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.18
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

Grenoble
0.95
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
67%
Grenoble or Guingamp
72%
Draw or Guingamp
61%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
17%
Guingamp wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
71%
Grenoble 2+ goals
35%
Grenoble 3+ goals
13%
Guingamp 1+ goals
67%
Guingamp 2+ goals
30%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
54%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grenoble scores more
39%
level
28%
Guingamp scores more
33%

Grenoble at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
M. DiopGrenobleGrenoble · G
8.3

Match Events

33'
J. Benet↳ Y. Diaby
48'
A. Hemia↳ H. Picard
60'
D. Ourega← L. Vallier
60'
T. Luvambo← L. Phiri
60'
J. Siwe← B. Labeau
63'
Gaëtan Paquiez
70'
A. Jabbari← Y. Diaby
70'
A. Kérouédan← J. Olaïtan
72'
Dylan Louiserre
77'
S. Touray← D. Rigo
78'
Junior Armando Mendes← R. Ghrieb
90+4'
E. Sylvestre← T. Valls

Possession

30%Grenoble

Shots

9Grenoble

Pass accuracy

47%Grenoble

Statistics

GrenobleGuingamp
Overview
30%Possession70%
9Total Shots24
1Corners6
16Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots24
7On Target10
2Off Target10
0Blocked4
6Inside Box13
3Outside Box11
Passing
30%Possession70%
297Total Passes666
227Accurate Passes581
76%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
9Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Grenoble vs Guingamp

Grenoble and Guingamp drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Benet (33'), A. Hemia (48').

Guingamp controlled possession (70%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.