Guingamp 3–0 Boulogne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Boulogne

L. Mafouta 58', 20'

Y. Demoncy 25'

1/3/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade de Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Guingamp42%

×Draw27%

Boulogne31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchBoulogne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

Guingamp

1.34

Boulogne

1.10

Guingamp creates 22% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 28 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Guingamp

1.40

Boulogne

1.00

allows per match

Guingamp

1.20

Boulogne

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Boulogne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

69%

Guingamp or Boulogne

73%

Draw or Boulogne

58%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

19%

Boulogne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

74%

Guingamp 2+ goals

39%

Guingamp 3+ goals

15%

Boulogne 1+ goals

67%

Boulogne 2+ goals

30%

Boulogne 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

58%

Boulogne (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guingamp scores more

42%

level

27%

Boulogne scores more

31%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Mafouta

Guingamp · F

9.0

Match Events

20'

L. Mafouta↳ K. Sidibe

25'

Y. Demoncy↳ L. Mafouta

49'

58'

66'

66'

68'

F. Mbemba← G. Ott

70'

78'

79'

79'

79'

87'

87'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampBoulogne

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots8

11Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target2

4Off Target3

7Blocked3

16Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

564Total Passes317

472Accurate Passes228

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Boulogne

Guingamp beat Boulogne 3-0 in Ligue 2 on January 3, 2026.

Goals: L. Mafouta (20', 58'), Y. Demoncy (25').

Guingamp controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade de Roudourou in Guingamp.

Guingamp vs Boulogne — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Boulogne