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Boulogne vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Boulogne
Boulogne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guingamp
Guingamp
N. Fatar 80'
C. Fatou 69'
L. Mafouta 66'
D. Ourega 11'
10/17/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne31%
×Draw27%
Guingamp42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boulogne
1.15
Guingamp
1.39

Guingamp creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 129 away

creates per match

Boulogne
1.00
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

Boulogne
1.52
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw
58%
Boulogne or Guingamp
73%
Draw or Guingamp
69%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+
13%
Guingamp wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals
68%
Boulogne 2+ goals
32%
Boulogne 3+ goals
11%
Guingamp 1+ goals
75%
Guingamp 2+ goals
40%
Guingamp 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)
42%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boulogne scores more
31%
level
27%
Guingamp scores more
42%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
N. FatarBoulogneBoulogne · F
8.2

Match Events

11'
D. Ourega↳ A. Hemia
34'
Nolan Binet
45+2'
Dylan Louiserre
46'
C. Fatou← G. Capuano
52'
Julien Boyer
66'
L. Mafouta↳ A. Hemia
67'
J. Bultel← L. Raillot
67'
N. Fatar← A. Platret
69'
C. Fatou↳ S. Duflos
73'
G. Ott← A. Sagna
74'
D. N'Landu← A. Hemia
76'
L. Boiteau← S. Duflos
77'
S. Kielt← L. Mafouta
80'
N. Fatar↳ C. Fatou
83'
Adrien Pinot
88'
S. Gourville← N. Binet
89'
Luka Boiteau

Possession

43%Boulogne

Shots

8Boulogne

Pass accuracy

48%Boulogne

Statistics

BoulogneGuingamp
Overview
43%Possession57%
8Total Shots8
2Corners2
14Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots8
3On Target3
3Off Target4
2Blocked1
6Inside Box5
2Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
402Total Passes538
325Accurate Passes469
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Guingamp

Boulogne and Guingamp drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on October 17, 2025.

Goals: D. Ourega (11'), L. Mafouta (66'), C. Fatou (69'), N. Fatar (80').

Guingamp controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade de la Libération in Boulogne-sur-Mer.