Boulogne 2–0 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Boulogne

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Guingamp

A. Allart 32'

V. Reset 19'

9/20/2011

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade de la Libération (Boulogne-sur-Mer)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne31%

×Draw27%

Guingamp42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoulogneExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.39

Boulogne

1.15

Guingamp

1.39

Guingamp creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 129 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.52

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Boulogne

1.00

Guingamp

1.25

allows per match

Boulogne

1.52

Guingamp

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw

58%

Boulogne or Guingamp

73%

Draw or Guingamp

69%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+

13%

Guingamp wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals

68%

Boulogne 2+ goals

32%

Boulogne 3+ goals

11%

Guingamp 1+ goals

75%

Guingamp 2+ goals

40%

Guingamp 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)

42%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boulogne scores more

31%

level

27%

Guingamp scores more

42%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. Reset

32'

A. Allart

55'

Y. Salibur← H. Cianci

67'

L. Damour← G. Ducatel

69'

G. Imbula Wanga← L. Mathis

69'

T. Giresse← A. Knockaert

77'

L. Douniama← N. Aboubakari

87'

A. Capoue← E. Reale

Boulogne

Guingamp

30

Samassa

2

Duplus

23

Camara

18

▼

5

28

8

29

7

24

▼

Knockaert

33

▼

40

12

4

21

▼

Cianci

18

Colin

11

▼

Ducatel

5

Toure

8

▼

Reale

19

Rimane

29

⚽

Reset

14

⚽

Allart

55'▲Y. Salibur←▼H. Cianci

67'▲L. Damour←▼G. Ducatel

87'▲A. Capoue←▼E. Reale

Boulogne substitutes

24Salibur26Damour10Capoue1Bague20Fabien

69'▲G. Imbula Wanga←▼L. Mathis

69'▲T. Giresse←▼A. Knockaert

77'▲L. Douniama←▼N. Aboubakari

Guingamp substitutes

12Wanga26Giresse11Douniama22Paisley1Guichard